Algorithms, Metrics, and Validation in Effort Estimation and Their Impact on DevOps Project Management: A Systematic Mapping Study

Authors

  • Iliana Alvarado Tecnológico Nacional de México, México
  • Noe Alejandro Castro Sanchez Tecnológico Nacional de México, México
  • Blanca Dina Valenzuela Robles Tecnológico Nacional de México, México
  • Rene Santaolaya Salgado Tecnológico Nacional de México, MéxicoTecnológico Nacional de México, México
  • Juan Gabriel González Serna Tecnológico Nacional de México, México

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.32870/recibe.v12i2.309

Keywords:

Estimación del esfuerzo, gestión de proyectos, DevOps, alcance, costo, tiempo

Abstract

In software development projects, effort estimation plays a critical role in determining project success or failure, as it is intrinsically linked to scope, cost, and schedule. Despite numerous efforts to improve estimation accuracy, most of the existing literature focuses on traditional software development projects, leaving a gap in the area of effort estimation for DevOps projects. This research focuses on identifying the algorithms/methods, metrics, and validation processes currently used for effort estimation. The study found a variety of techniques, including machine learning-based algorithms, software size estimation methods, checklists, agile estimation techniques, and estimation frameworks. These techniques evaluate estimation accuracy using a wide range of metrics, including Mean Magnitude of Relative Error (MMRE), Median Magnitude of Relative Error (MdMRE), Prediction at Level n (Pred(n)), Standardized Accuracy (SA), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), Squared Error, Mean Absolute Residual, Magnitude of Relative Error (MRE), Median Balanced Relative Error Bias, Relative Error, Absolute Error, Root Relative Squared Error (RRSE), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), Accuracy, Mean Squared Error (MSE), Coefficient of Variation, Mean, and Standard Deviation. The studies reviewed were validated through surveys, case studies, user stories, interviews, factors, and projects extracted from well-known datasets and repositories such as COCOMO81, NASA93, Maxwell, China, and ISBSG. The results of this research have the potential to contribute new approaches for improving the effort estimation process in DevOps projects, helping to fill a significant gap in the current literature on this topic.      

References

S. McConnell, Software Estimation: Demystifying the Black Art. Redmond, Wash, 2006.

The Standish Group, «CHAOS Report Beyond Infinity», The Standish Group, 2020. The Standish Group

K. Petersen, S. Vakkalanka, y L. Kuzniarz, «Guidelines for conducting systematic mapping studies in software

engineering: An update», Information and Software Technology, vol. 64, pp. 1-18, ago. 2015, doi:

1016/j.infsof.2015.03.007.

B. Kitchenham y S. Charters, «Guidelines for performing systematic literature reviews in software

engineering», Technical report, EBSE Technical Report EBSE-2007-01, 2007. Accedido: 26 de agosto de 2023. [En

línea]. Disponible en: https://docs.edtechhub.org/lib/EDAG684W

D. Budgen, M. Turner, P. Brereton, y B. Kitchenham, «Using Mapping Studies in Software Engineering»,

presentado en Annual Workshop of the Psychology of Programming Interest Group, 2008. Accedido: 26 de agosto de

[En línea]. Disponible en: https://www.semanticscholar.org/paper/Using-Mapping-Studies-in-Software-

Engineering-Budgen-Turner/f7644baad4c2c9bf0a7a2b1107209d2b9495aaff

S. Grimstad, M. Jørgensen, y K. Moløkken-Østvold, «Software effort estimation terminology: The tower of

Babel», Information and Software Technology, vol. 48, n.o 4, pp. 302-310, abr. 2006, doi: 10.1016/j.infsof.2005.04.004.

F. Pinciroli, «Strategies for agile software development based on technical and environmental complexity

factors», presentado en XXVIII Congreso Argentino de Ciencias de la Computación (CACIC) (La Rioja, 3 al 6 de

octubre de 2022), 2023. Accedido: 25 de agosto de 2023. [En línea]. Disponible en:

http://sedici.unlp.edu.ar/handle/10915/149423

Guía del PMBOK, «GUÍA DE LOS FUNDAMENTOS PARA LA DIRECCIÓN DE PROYECTOS (PMBOK)»,

Project Management Institute, Inc., 2017.

X. Yang, J. Liu, y D. Zhang, «A Comprehensive Taxonomy for Prediction Models in Software Engineering»,

Information, vol. 14, n.o 2, Art. n.o 2, feb. 2023, doi: 10.3390/info14020111.

B. W. Boehm, «Software Engineering Economics», IEEE Trans. Software Eng., vol. SE-10, n.o 1, pp. 4-21,

ene. 1984, doi: 10.1109/TSE.1984.5010193.

E. Mendes, Cost Estimation Techniques for Web Projects. IGI Global, 1d. C. Accedido: 26 de agosto de 2023.

[En línea]. Disponible en: https://www.igi-global.com/book/cost-estimation-techniques-web-projects/www.igiglobal.

com/book/cost-estimation-techniques-web-projects/207

M. Usman, J. Börstler, y K. Petersen, «An Effort Estimation Taxonomy for Agile Software Development»,

International Journal of Software Engineering and Knowledge Engineering, vol. 27, pp. 641-674, may 2017, doi:

1142/S0218194017500243.

A. Zakrani, A. Najm, y A. Marzak, «Support Vector Regression Based on Grid-Search Method for Agile

Software Effort Prediction», en 2018 IEEE 5th International Congress on Information Science and Technology (CiSt),

oct. 2018, pp. 1-6. doi: 10.1109/CIST.2018.8596370.

J. Angara, S. Prasad, y G. Sridevi, «Towards Benchmarking User Stories Estimation with COSMIC Function

Points-A Case Example of Participant Observation», International Journal of Electrical and Computer Engineering

(IJECE), vol. 8, n.o 5, Art. n.o 5, oct. 2018, doi: 10.11591/ijece.v8i5.pp3076-3083.

T. Hacaloğlu y O. Demirörs, Measurability of functional size in agile software projects: Multiple case studies

with COSMIC FSM. IEEE, 2019. doi: 10.1109/SEAA.2019.00041.

E. Scott y D. Pfahl, «Using developers’ features to estimate story points», en Proceedings of the 2018

International Conference on Software and System Process, Gothenburg Sweden: ACM, may 2018, pp. 106-110. doi:

1145/3202710.3203160.

T. T. Khuat y M. H. Le, «A Novel Hybrid ABC-PSO Algorithm for Effort Estimation of Software Projects Using

Agile Methodologies», Journal of Intelligent Systems, vol. 27, n.o 3, pp. 489-506, jul. 2018, doi: 10.1515/jisys-2016-

Ch. Prasada Rao, P. Siva Kumar, S. Rama Sree, y J. Devi, «An Agile Effort Estimation Based on Story Points

Using Machine Learning Techniques», en Proceedings of the Second International Conference on Computational

Intelligence and Informatics, V. Bhateja, J. M. R. S. Tavares, B. P. Rani, V. K. Prasad, y K. S. Raju, Eds., en Advances

in Intelligent Systems and Computing. Singapore: Springer, 2018, pp. 209-219. doi: 10.1007/978-981-10-8228-3_20.

T. J. Gandomani, H. Faraji, y M. Radnejad, «Planning Poker in cost estimation in Agile methods: Averaging

Vs. Consensus», en 2019 5th Conference on Knowledge Based Engineering and Innovation (KBEI), feb. 2019, pp.

-071. doi: 10.1109/KBEI.2019.8734960.

M. Choetkiertikul, H. K. Dam, T. Tran, T. Pham, A. Ghose, y T. Menzies, «A Deep Learning Model for Estimating

Story Points», IEEE Transactions on Software Engineering, vol. 45, n.o 7, pp. 637-656, jul. 2019, doi:

1109/TSE.2018.2792473.

F. Vera-Rivera, J. Barbosa-Mora, y M. Gaona, «Generación automática de la planificación de la entrega en

desarrollo de software agil, asignación de historias de usuario a los desarrolladores usando algoritmos genéticos»,

Aibi revista de investigación, administración e ingeniería, vol. 8, pp. 29-38, jun. 2020, doi: 10.15649/2346030X.735.

N. A. Bhaskaran, Dr. V. Jayaraj, y Professor, School of Computer Science Engineering & Applications,

Bharathidasan University Tiruchirappalli, India, «A Hybrid Effort Estimation Technique for Agile Software Development

(HEETAD)», IJEAT, vol. 9, n.o 1, pp. 1078-1087, oct. 2019, doi: 10.35940/ijeat.A9480.109119.

N. V. Prykhodko y S. B. Prykhodko, «A MULTIPLE NON-LINEAR REGRESSION MODEL TO ESTIMATE THE

AGILE TESTING EFFORTS FOR SMALL WEB PROJECTS», Radio Electronics, Computer Science, Control, n.o 2,

Art. n.o 2, may 2019, doi: 10.15588/1607-3274-2019-2-17.

E. Dantas, A. Costa, M. Vinicius, M. Perkusich, H. Almeida, y A. Perkusich, «An Effort Estimation Support Tool

for Agile Software Development: An Empirical Evaluation», jul. 2019, pp. 82-87. doi: 10.18293/SEKE2019-141.

B. Tanveer, A. M. Vollmer, S. Braun, y N. Ali, «An evaluation of effort estimation supported by change impact

analysis in agile software development», Journal of Software: Evolution and Process, vol. 31, abr. 2019, doi:

1002/smr.2165.

Rola y Kuchta, «Application of Fuzzy Sets to the Expert Estimation of Scrum-Based Projects», Symmetry, vol.

, p. 1032, ago. 2019, doi: 10.3390/sym11081032.

S. Bilgaiyan, S. Mishra, y M. N. Das, «Effort estimation in agile software development using experimental

validation of neural network models», International Journal of Information Technology, vol. 11, abr. 2018, doi:

1007/s41870-018-0131-2.

J. Angara, S. Prasad, y G. Sridevi, «DevOps Project Management Tools for Sprint Planning, Estimation and

Execution Maturity», Cybernetics and Information Technologies, vol. 20, n.o 2, pp. 79-92, may 2020, doi: 10.2478/cait-

-0018.

A. Sharma y N. Chaudhary, «Analysis of Software Effort Estimation Based on Story Point and Lines of Code

using Machine Learning», IJCDS, vol. 12, n.o 1, pp. 131-140, jul. 2022, doi: 10.12785/ijcds/1201012.

A. Kaushik y D. Tayal, «A Comparative Analysis on Effort Estimation for Agile and Non-agile Software Projects

Using DBN-ALO», Arabian Journal for Science and Engineering, vol. 45, nov. 2019, doi: 10.1007/s13369-019-04250-

M. Vyas y N. Hemrajani, «PREDICTING EFFORT OF AGILE SOFTWARE PROJECTS USING LINEAR

REGRESSION, RIDGE REGRESSION AND LOGISTIC REGRESSION», vol. 13, n.o 2, 2021.

C. V. Dave, «An Efficient Framework for Cost and Effort Estimation of Scrum Projects», IJRASET, vol. 9, n.o

, pp. 1478-1487, nov. 2021, doi: 10.22214/ijraset.2021.39030.

CEOLEVEL, «¿Estándares, metodologías o marcos de trabajo? ¿Sabes diferenciarlos?», CEOLEVEL, 9 de

noviembre de 2020. https://www.ceolevel.com/estandares-metodologias-o-marcos-de-trabajo-sabes-diferenciarlos

(accedido 26 de agosto de 2023).

A. Raslan, N. Darwish, y Cairo University, «An Enhanced Framework for Effort Estimation of Agile Projects»,

IJIES, vol. 11, n.o 3, pp. 205-214, jun. 2018, doi: 10.22266/ijies2018.0630.22.

D. D. R. Tripathi, «Evaluation of the Feasibility of Parametric Estimation in Devops Continuous Planning»,

International Journal for Research in Applied Science and Engineering Technology, vol. 9, n.o 9, p. 542, 2021,

Accedido: 26 de agosto de 2023. [En línea]. Disponible en:

https://www.academia.edu/52397035/Evaluation_of_the_Feasibility_of_Parametric_Estimation_in_Devops_Continuo

us_Planning

F. Alshammari, «Cost estimate in scrum project with the decision-based effort estimation technique», Soft

Computing, vol. 26, pp. 1-13, jul. 2022, doi: 10.1007/s00500-022-07352-w.

S. A. Butt et al., «A software-based cost estimation technique in scrum using a developer’s expertise»,

Advances in Engineering Software, vol. 171, p. 103159, sep. 2022, doi: 10.1016/j.advengsoft.2022.103159.

S. Abusaeed, S. U. R. Khan, y A. Mashkoor, «A Fuzzy AHP-based approach for prioritization of cost overhead

factors in agile software development», Applied Soft Computing, vol. 133, p. 109977, ene. 2023, doi:

1016/j.asoc.2022.109977.

A. Vetrò, R. Dürre, M. Conoscenti, D. M. Fernández, y M. Jørgensen, «Combining Data Analytics with Team

Feedback to Improve the Estimation Process in Agile Software Development», Foundations of Computing and

Decision Sciences, vol. 43, n.o 4, pp. 305-334, nov. 2018, doi: 10.1515/fcds-2018-0016.

M. Usman, K. Petersen, J. Börstler, y P. Santos Neto, «Developing and using checklists to improve software

effort estimation: A multi-case study», Journal of Systems and Software, vol. 146, pp. 286-309, dic. 2018, doi:

1016/j.jss.2018.09.054.

M. Adnan, M. Afzal, y K. Asif, «Ontology-Oriented Software Effort Estimation System for E-commerce

Applications Based on Extreme Programming and Scrum Methodologies», The Computer Journal, vol. 62, pp. 1605-

, nov. 2019, doi: 10.1093/comjnl/bxy141.

R. K. Mallidi y M. Sharma, «Study on Agile Story Point Estimation Techniques and Challenges», International

Journal of Computer Applications, vol. 174, n.o 13, pp. 9-14, ene. 2021, Accedido: 26 de agosto de 2023. [En línea].

Disponible en: https://www.ijcaonline.org/archives/volume174/number13/31736-2021921014

H. Premalatha y C. Srikrishna, «Effort Estimation in Agile Software Development using Evolutionary

CostSensitive Deep Belief Network», International Journal of Intelligent Engineering and Systems, vol. 12, pp. 261-

, abr. 2019, doi: 10.22266/ijies2019.0430.25.

L.-D. Radu, «Effort Prediction in Agile Software Development with Bayesian Networks»:, en Proceedings of

the 14th International Conference on Software Technologies, Prague, Czech Republic: SCITEPRESS - Science and

Technology Publications, 2019, pp. 238-245. doi: 10.5220/0007842802380245.

D. Meedeniya y H. Thennakoon, «Impact Factors and Best Practices to Improve Effort Estimation Strategies

and Practices in DevOps», ago. 2021. doi: 10.1145/3484399.3484401

A. Sharma and N. Chaudhary, "Linear Regression Model for Agile Software Development Effort Estimation," 2020

th IEEE International Conference on Recent Advances and Innovations in Engineering (ICRAIE), Jaipur, India, 2020,

pp. 1-4, doi: 10.1109/ICRAIE51050.2020.9358309.

B. Valenzuela, I. Alvarado, R. Santaolaya, H. Reyes. “Identification of methods, approaches, and factors in effort

estimation for DevOps projects: a systematic literature mapping”. 2023 Mexican International Conference on Computer

Science (ENC). Guanajuato, Guanajuato, México.

Published

2024-02-27 — Updated on 2026-06-21

Versions

How to Cite

Alvarado, I., Castro Sanchez, N. A., Valenzuela Robles, B. D., Santaolaya Salgado, R., & González Serna, J. G. . (2026). Algorithms, Metrics, and Validation in Effort Estimation and Their Impact on DevOps Project Management: A Systematic Mapping Study. ReCIBE, Electronic Journal of Computing, Informatics, Biomedical and Electronics, 12(2), C13–15. https://doi.org/10.32870/recibe.v12i2.309 (Original work published February 27, 2024)

Issue

Section

Computer Science & IT